A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
